a glowing-badminton volley… to the futurist
Thinking many years into the future is difficult these days. Issac Asimov did it in 1964, predicting the cutting edge technology issues 50 years in the future, for the year 2014…
Here are some provocative tidbits that caught my eye, starting with robotics (a particular area of interest to him, author the Three Laws of Robotics and all):
“Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence.
Much effort will be put into the designing of vehicles with “Robot-brains” — vehicles that can be set for particular destinations and that will then proceed there without interference by the slow reflexes of a human driver.
The world of A.D. 2014 will have few routine jobs that cannot be done better by some machine than by any human being.
Not all the world’s population will enjoy the gadgety world of the future to the full. A larger portion than today will be deprived and although they may be better off, materially, than today, they will be further behind when compared with the advanced portions of the world. They will have moved backward, relatively.
The lucky few who can be involved in creative work of any sort will be the true elite of mankind, for they alone will do more than serve a machine.
By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works.
On earth, however, laser beams will have to be led through plastic pipes, to avoid material and atmospheric interference. [fiber optic bundles in plastic conduit]
In 2014, there is every likelihood that the world population will be 6,500,000,000 and the population of the United States will be 350,000,000. [<10% error] The increasing use of mechanical devices to replace failing hearts and kidneys, and repair stiffening arteries and breaking nerves will have cut the death rate still further and have lifted the life expectancy in some parts of the world to age 85. [Spot on, 85 years is the regional peak today for women in Japan and Switzerland] There will, therefore, be a worldwide propaganda drive in favor of birth control by rational and humane methods and, by 2014, it will undoubtedly have taken serious effect. Ordinary agriculture will keep up with great difficulty and there will be “farms” turning to the more efficient micro-organisms. Processed yeast and algae products will be available in a variety of flavors. The 2014 [Futurama] fair will feature an Algae Bar at which “mock-turkey” and “pseudosteak” will be served. It won’t be bad at all (if you can dig up those premium prices), but there will be considerable psychological resistance to such an innovation. It is not only the techniques of teaching that will advance, however, but also the subject matter that will change. All the high-school students will be taught the fundamentals of computer technology will become proficient in binary arithmetic and will be trained to perfection in the use of the computer languages that will have developed out of those like the contemporary “Fortran” (from “formula translation”).” More photos from the TED Advisory Board retreat: http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/9743424182/ Full text of Asimov, 1964 http://www.nytimes.com/…/03/23/lifetimes/asi-v-fair.html
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