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“Our brains aren’t just shaped by the past. They are constantly being shaped by our future.”

80% of people describe themselves as optimists. Our brains are wired to see the bright side. Tali Sharot’s TED talk on our collective bias toward optimism went online.

“We are more optimistic than realistic, but we are oblivious to the fact. Take marriage for example. In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40%. But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce, they estimate it at zero percent. Even divorce lawyers. Optimists are not less likely to divorce, but they are more likely to remarry. In the words of Samuel Johnson, “Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience.”

Some say ‘Happiness correlates with low expectations.’
It’s a good theory, but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons:

1) Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail, people with high expectations always feel better, because how we feel — when we get dumped or we win employee of the month — depends on how we interpret that event.

2) Regardless of outcome, anticipation makes us happy.

3) Optimism changes subjective and objective reality. Optimism leads to success. If we expect the future to be bright, stress and anxiety are reduced.”

10 responses to “Echoes of the Optimism Bias”

  1. During the video, you might see my blue shirt up in the jury on stage. My job was to aggregate the jury’s real-time reaction into one question. I took some liberties, I must admit, in tilting to the questions I really wanted to ask.

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    This is the gist of my question, which came just after the video stops:

    We may have a jury-selection bias toward optimistic entrepreneurs. As you think about evolutionary selection pressures during hunter-gatherer times, appreciation of risk may be critical to survival. But in an innovation-driven economy driven by network effects and with a power law in income distributions, should we celebrate the extremely optimistic… and only when it comes to health choices and physical risk, revert to conscious pragmatism?

    P.S. During an earlier talk on American justice, the most popular at TED 2012, I took photos outward from the stage.

  2. Always see the bright side of life.


    Seen on my Flickr home page. (?)

  3. Great portrait, always relate well to everything that has echoes, future and optimism in it…

  4. You need to read "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Kahneman. It really gets into how we are influenced by our biases. Interesting reading – on risk and risk aversion and on decision making.

  5. And…….. The answer to your question was?

  6. I think our human nature’s mismatch with the world we have created around us is easier to understand if we compare it with our digestive system, — which is supposed to be practically identical to a chimpanzee’s — with what we eat, not only today, but for the last few thousand of our million or so years of species life. The psychology of all this maladjustment is harder to quantify, because, unlike the intestines, subjectivity enters into it, but I would imagine it similar.

  7. not at all… seatonsnet’s observation is profound. As Steven Hayes said recently at the Evolutionary Medicine conference, "We turn our symbolic behavior within… with experiential avoidance. Children are exposed to threatening ideas like never before… We did not evolve to avoid the world within."

  8. Finally finished watching it… Any penguin can fly like an eagle:) Visualize oneself:) maybe some penguins have some imaginations to envision future being bright and themselves flying no matter what, so they have a very strong will to create a dent in the universe at times, since the best way the reality can be described in our days as being holographic and one of many running possibilities in a multiverse…:)

  9. Also wanted to mention that I do not feel very optimistic about American divorce law and attorneys, these professionals should be avoided by all means, they destroy people financially and psychologically….just heard a story about 5 year case dragged by the attorney…mostly women get easily manipulated by their attorneys and it only serves one purpose – enriching lawyers, not helping divorced parents to have a good relationship after the divorce for their children’s sake…even if it is a different type of love, even after divorce – there is no reason whatsoever for hating each other – really there got to be better divorce laws, protecting people from abusive divorce attorneys – their interest is in creating more turmoil.

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