Had breakfast with an Israeli who was convinced Iran will attack Israel, and that in the face of annihilation, Israel should launch 1/3 of its arsenal back at Iran, 1/3 at Mecca and Medina and 1/3 at Europe.
Bit of a downer to start the day.
But it reminded me of a talk by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a consultant to the CIA who applies game theory to make uncanny predictions of political and warfighting events with about 90% accuracy.
“Game theory applies to everyone except 2 year olds and schizophrenics. It assumes people are rationally self-interested, that people have values and beliefs, and that they face limitations.”
“You have to analyze the influencers, and consider how everyone shapes the outcome.”
“The stock market is not predictable, but most complicated negotiations are.”
So he has been studying the lower ranks of the Iranian decision hierarchy.
On his graph above, the white line shows his prediction if Iran were allowed to proceed without external pressure. The efforts of the U.S. and others to direct Iran’s course raise the risk of bad outcomes (the orange line).
“The President and the mullahs will lose influence, except the quiet, moderate ayatollahs in Qume who will gain. Moneyed interests will also gain.”
His conclusion is that Iran will produce enough weapons grade fuel (WGF) to prove they can – out of pride – but they won’t build the bomb.
Whew, I’m feeling so much better now…..
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