A rare reaction from competitive colleagues at the Churchill Club this evening….
I had just presented the first trend, and grabbed the camera for the reaction on stage.
We each suggest trends, and then vote red or green, which usually leads to a lively debate.
I went for a U.S. market trend and a geek trend (and tried not to overlap with last year’s predictions):
Trend #1: Demographics are destiny, creating opportunity. Every 11 seconds, a baby boomer turns 60. This Internet-savvy cohort represents an enormous market of time and money, driving new opportunities in “mental exercise”, online education, and eventually, an “eBay for information” that exceeds the market for physical goods.
Trend #2: Evolution Trumps Design. Many interesting unsolved problems in computer science, nanotechnology, and synthetic biology require the construction of complex systems. Evolutionary algorithms are a powerful alternative to traditional design, blossoming first in neural networks, now in microbial re-engineering, and eventually in AI.
Vinod Khosla:
Trend #1: The device that used to be a phone. A mobile phone will turn into a mainstream computer. Beyond email, built in projection screen, and high speed data will make it your virtual credit card, ID (passport), access to new types of presence (IM), payment system, personal information filing system, and much much more.
Trend #2: Fossilizing fossil energy. Oil will have increasing difficulty competing with biofuels made from cheap non-food crops for transportation. Coal will become less competitive compared to reliable solar thermal and enhanced geothermal electricity as both oil and coal’s decline will be aided by higher efficiency engines, cars, lighting, appliances.
Josh Kopelman:
Trend #1: The rise of the “Implicit” Internet. Historically, the web delivered most of its value by satisfying explicit user actions – a user entered a search query on Google, a user entered a review on Yelp, a user added their friends on Facebook.
However, as people spend more time online (and perform more of their activities online), they are leaving a trail of “digital breadcrumbs” exposing data about themselves. The result is an immense amount of implicit data on a user. Netflix knows what movies I watch and like. Apple knows what music I purchase and listen to…
However, until now that data has existed in silos. There has been no easy way for me (as a user) to access and benefit from that data. The next big wave of Internet value creation will come to those companies that can deliver value based on the implicit use of these data sources – by taking advantage of these existing data repositories in novel ways.
Trend #2: Venture Capital 2.0. Venture Capital has underwritten most of the transformative software and Internet companies for the last twenty years. However, changing economics (for both startups and venture funds) combined with changing markets, will have a dramatic impact on the venture capital industry.
Joe Schoendorf:
Trend #1: Water tech will replace global warming as a global priority.
The world is running out of usable water and this will kill millions more people in our lifetime than global warming.
Trend #2: 80% of the world population will carry mobile internet devices within 5-10 years. Mobile internet devices are rapidly becoming THE leading product category.
Roger McNamee:
Trend #1: The mobile device industry’s migration from feature phones to smart phones will produce even greater disruption than what the PC industry experienced as it moved from character-mode to graphical interfaces. It will disrupt the competitive balance, with big market share shifts. Consumers will benefit from greater choice and lower prices.
Trend #2: Within five years, everything that matters to you will be available on a device that fits on your belt or in your purse. This will cause a massive shift in internet traffic from PCs to smaller devices.
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