From what I know, my family tree traces entirely to Estonia, back to the fog of countless invasions and occupations of my homeland. So it was with some curiosity that I explored my lineage back a few thousand generations and 60,000 years to Africa, and a long period in Iran. My recent ancestors were likely reindeer herders in Siberia, breeding Samoyed white fluffy dogs.

I submitted my DNA anonymously to IBM for a research project, and from the mutations in my Y-chromosome alone, they identified me as haplotype N LLY22G, which pegs the Uralic language of my family and the locale of northern Scandinavia / Eastern Europe. With only my DNA, they identified my family origin on the map above to within a few miles, and traced it back to the veritable “Adam” in Africa, from whom we are all descendants.

And, unaware of any of this, it is odd that, so far in my life, I have adopted two animals from shelters, both Samoyed dogs.

Here is a portion of my Genographic Project report, a fascinating peek into genetic archaeology:

Your Y-chromosome results identify you as a member of haplogroup N.

The genetic markers that define your ancestral history reach back roughly 60,000 years to the first common marker of all non-African men, M168, and follow your lineage to present day, ending with LLY22(G), the defining marker of haplogroup N.

If you look at the map highlighting your ancestors’ route, you will see that members of haplogroup N carry the following Y-chromosome markers:

M168 > M89 > M9 > LLY22(G)

Today, your ancestors are found in northern parts of Scandinavia particularly northern Finland as well as Siberia east of the Altai Mountains, and in northeastern Europe. Many Russians are members of haplogroup N, as are the reindeer-herding Saami people of northern Scandinavia and Russia.

What’s a haplogroup, and why do geneticists concentrate on the Y-chromosome in their search for markers? For that matter, what’s a marker?

Each of us carries DNA that is a combination of genes passed from both our mother and father, giving us traits that range from eye color and height to athleticism and disease susceptibility. One exception is the Y-chromosome, which is passed directly from father to son, unchanged, from generation to generation.

Unchanged, that is unless a mutation—a random, naturally occurring, usually harmless change—occurs. The mutation, known as a marker, acts as a beacon; it can be mapped through generations because it will be passed down from the man in whom it occurred to his sons, their sons, and every male in his family for thousands of years.

Your Ancestral Journey: What We Know Now

M168: Your Earliest Ancestor
Time of Emergence: Roughly 50,000 years ago
Place of Origin: Africa
Climate: Temporary retreat of Ice Age; Africa moves from drought to warmer temperatures and moister conditions
Estimated Number of Homo sapiens: Approximately 10,000
Tools and Skills: Stone tools; earliest evidence of art and advanced conceptual skills

The man who gave rise to the first genetic marker in your lineage probably lived in northeast Africa in the region of the Rift Valley. Scientists put the most likely date for when he lived at around 50,000 years ago. His descendants became the only lineage to survive outside of Africa, making him the common ancestor of every non-African man living today.

But why would man have first ventured out of the familiar African hunting grounds and into unexplored lands? It is likely that a fluctuation in climate may have provided the impetus for your ancestors’ exodus out of Africa.

The African ice age was characterized by drought rather than by cold. It was around 50,000 years ago that the ice sheets of northern Europe began to melt, introducing a period of warmer temperatures and moister climate in Africa. Parts of the inhospitable Sahara briefly became habitable. As the drought-ridden desert changed to a savanna, the animals hunted by your ancestors expanded their range and began moving through the newly emerging green corridor of grasslands.

M89: Moving Through the Middle East
Time of Emergence: 45,000 years ago
Place: Middle East
Climate: Semi-arid grass plains
Estimated Number of Homo sapiens: Tens of thousands
Tools and Skills: Stone, ivory, wood tools

The next male ancestor in your ancestral lineage is the man who gave rise to M89, a marker found in 90 to 95 percent of all non-Africans. This man was born around 45,000 years ago in northern Africa or the Middle East.

The first people to leave Africa likely followed a coastal route that eventually ended in Australia. Your ancestors followed the expanding grasslands and plentiful game to the Middle East and beyond, and were part of the second great wave of migration out of Africa.

Beginning about 40,000 years ago, the climate shifted once again and became colder and more arid. Drought hit Africa and the grasslands reverted to desert, and for the next 20,000 years, the Saharan Gateway was effectively closed. With the desert impassable, your ancestors had two options: remain in the Middle East, or move on. Retreat back to the home continent was not an option.

While many of the descendants of M89 remained in the Middle East, others continued to follow the great herds of buffalo, antelope, woolly mammoths, and other game through what is now modern-day Iran to the vast steppes of Central Asia.

These semi-arid grass-covered plains formed an ancient “superhighway” stretching from eastern France to Korea. Your ancestors, having migrated north out of Africa into the Middle East, then traveled both east and west along this Central Asian superhighway. A smaller group continued moving north from the Middle East to Anatolia and the Balkans, trading familiar grasslands for forests and high country.

M9: The Eurasian Clan Spreads Wide and Far
Time of Emergence: 40,000 years ago
Place: Iran or southern Central Asia
Estimated Number of Homo sapiens: Tens of thousands
Tools and Skills: Upper Paleolithic

Your next ancestor, a man born around 40,000 years ago in Iran or southern Central Asia, gave rise to a genetic marker known as M9, which marked a new lineage diverging from the M89 Middle Eastern Clan. His descendants, of which you are one, spent the next 30,000 years populating much of the planet.

This large lineage, known as the Eurasian Clan, dispersed gradually over thousands of years. Seasoned hunters followed the herds ever eastward, along the vast super highway of Eurasian steppe. Eventually their path was blocked by the massive mountain ranges of south Central Asia—the Hindu Kush, the Tian Shan, and the Himalayas.

The three mountain ranges meet in a region known as the “Pamir Knot,” located in present-day Tajikistan. Here the tribes of hunters split into two groups. Some moved north into Central Asia, others moved south into what is now Pakistan and the Indian subcontinent.

LLY22G: Siberian Marker
Time of Emergence: Within the last 10,000 years
Place of Origin: Siberia
Climate: Present Day
Estimated Number of Homo sapiens: Tens of millions
Tools/Skills: Some hunter-fishers, some farmers
Language: Chiefly found in Uralic-speaking populations

One of the men in a group of Eurasian Clan peoples who traveled north through the Pamir Knot region gave rise to the LLY22G marker, which defines your lineage, haplogroup N.

Today his descendants effectively trace a migration of Uralic-speaking peoples during the last several thousand years. This lineage has dispersed throughout the generations, and is now found in southern parts of Scandinavia as well as northeastern Eurasia. The Saami, an indigenous people of northern Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Russia, traditionally supported themselves with hunting and fishing, their movement dictated by the reindeer herds.

This is where your genetic trail, as we know it today, ends. However, be sure to revisit these pages. As additional data are collected and analyzed, more will be learned about your place in the history of the men and women who first populated the Earth. We will be updating these stories throughout the life of the Genographic Project.

Update: you can get your own test here

61 responses to “Who’s Your Daddy?”

  1. Interesting! Just last night I was wishing/lamenting that I need my genome sequenced and analyzed. I’ll have to look into this project, if it’s still going.

  2. that is all really fascinating. i would love to have that done… and make it compulsory for any members of the National Front over here to go through the same process…

  3. How would it go for me – my family has been in Middle- and South of Finland since 1550s…

    Interesting – thank you !!


    Seen in my contacts’ photos. (?)

  4. thanks….. I added a note to the SRY gene on my Y-chromosome, as it reminded me of a blog comment I made long ago:

    Matt Ridley has written some wonderful books summarizing the inter-gene warfare going on within our bodies, especially between the X and Y sex chromosomes. The X chromosome spends two thirds of its time in women, and one third in men. X is evolving much more rapidly in its ability to attack Y than vice versa, and Y has withered over time, shutting down most of its gene targets (most of it is now non-coding DNA that serves no known purpose). But Y has one very interesting and important gene: the SRY gene on the Y chromosome triggers the masculinization of the embryo. It is one of the fastest evolving genes, with 10x the normal variation between species. The reason: the X chromosome tries to shut down the SRY gene, distorting the sex ratio in favor of females. When a SRY mutation evades attack, it spreads like wildfire in the male population and becomes the new standard throughout all members of the species.

    This seemed pretty odd and inefficient to me at first, but then I thought of Dawkins: evolution is the survival of the fittest genes. Genes compete; organisms are the vehicles of genetic expression.

    Evolution may appear to proceed in the interests of the individual or the species, but in fact it is driven by the competition between genes…. and now complimented by competition between memes.

    In response to this post, Matt Ridley emailed me a wonderful update:

    "If you want to follow up on Y chromosomes, read the stuff that
    came out last year from David Page’s group on the Y chromosome’s
    palindromes: truly astonishing discovery. One is as long as half the
    complete works of Shakespeare and 99.97% perfect.”

    Imagine a “Madam, I’m Adam” of that length, and with palindromes nested within palindromes, hiding the secrets of male fertility.

    “To the researchers’ surprise, groups of genes are arranged as palindromes: The sequence on one side of a piece of DNA is the mirror image of the sequence on the other side. During replication, this arrangement makes it easy for a good copy of a gene on one side to replace a defective copy on another. In this way, the Y chromosome compensates for not having a mate to pair up with during reproduction.”

    To this IT geek, it sounds like it’s using error-correcting code with a simple form of encryption. And the survival of males depends on it!

    More marvels discovered every day….

  5. My wish/lament was prompted, in fact, because I had been reading Ridley’s "Genome" and earlier had read ahead to the Y chromosome chapter because it was referred to in a previous chapter.

    As I’m pregnant now, it was a bit unsettling to read about uterine "warfare" between the father’s genes and the mother’s. Anyway, going to keep reading about the National Geographic project. Thanks for posting the previous blog comments from Ridley.

  6. http://www.flickr.com/photos/alexmuse/116113911/ Got mine done a while back. Sort of disappointed how generic the results were.

  7. I think you should read this Estonian study http://www.geocities.com/grpadm/Rootsi2006.pdf
    Human genome project shows old data about haplogroup N
    like its more common in finnish population(63%) than samis also haplogroups route is changed in this newer study.

  8. So you’ve tracked dad back in time, how ’bout mom now…

    I recently watched a program on the Science Channel about "Time" hosted by Dr. Michio Kaku. As part of the program he contributed a DNA sample for a maternal DNA mapping study being done in England (Maybe this is part of the Genographic project). I was fascinated and intend to see if the project is open to the general public.

    Edit ~ My sample kit from the Genographic Project is now ordered and on the way. ‘-}

  9. <— from Iran, just a bit more recently than yourself. Guess we’re all brothers and sisters after all!

  10. I did this back in Sept. It caused a great commotion in my family…most were simply astounded that this was possible…"like looking back at one’s male ancestry through a hubble-telescope." Caused much introspection and deep thinking…A tremendous project! The field of "genetic archeology" is just being born and will be a font of riches for years to come…Spencer Wells is doing a phenom job of promotion and funding…and he def. gets the "Indiana Jones" award for the videos he’s making…

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/stephenbove/235270437/

    stephenbove.blogspot.com/2006_09_03_archive.html

  11. timely post. this published in PLoS – Genetics last week.

    genetics.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&…

  12. i would love to do this, my dad knows next to nothing about his side of the family and my mother can only trace hers back a generation or two in finland. unfortunately i can’t swing the cost right now.

  13. Reached this photo via a search for "Genographic project", but I was not at all surprised to arrive here, Steve.

    I’m thinking of doing this and wonder if they also tested your mitochondrial DNA? The Y-chromosome just gives a single chain of paternal ancestors which represents a rather small fraction of one’s entire DNA. (For that matter, so would the mitochondrial DNA). Still this is definitely a cool project.

  14. I’d also recommend Genes, Peoples & Languages by Luigi Luca Cavalli-Sforza to get into the details that serve as the backdrop to the Genographic Project. The book certainly gives additional perspective to the findings. The brainchild of the Genographic Project, Spencer Wells, did a post-doc in Cavalli-Sforza’s lab. It’s a great read.

  15. Thanks! Added to Amazon. I like your recommendations.

    sprklg: I have not done the mDNA yet…. so the question for me remains: Who’s your mama?

  16. likewise. I had Kurzweil’s Singularity is Near on my shelf just collecting dust for quite awhile, but one of your posts spurred me to finally read it. fascinating read – much of the material sunk in when I read the 2nd time.

    further highlighting the virtues of maintaining the ‘Umberto Eco Antilibrary’

  17. it’s very interesting!
    thanks for sharing this!
    You are invited to place this outstanding photo as Photo-Of-The-Day


    Photo-of-the-day

    Photo-Of-The-Day

  18. Really interesting stuff. You’d think it would be free, though. (But then, I’m genetically wired to be a spendthrift.)

  19. This is extremely interesting. I absolutely have to learn more about this field.

  20. speaking of Estonia, I saw a cool segment on Wired Science (pbs) this evening titled ‘Russian Hackers Take Down Estonia’. Video here. the real interesting part came when I was trying to explain some of this to my 5 yr old watching with me.

  21. I doubt about your title I think genograohy would tells you who are your mothers and mothers of mothers and so on according the way they track

    and i would be so happy that how they find out you adopt to dogs???

    I would like so much to know the same about myself but it is so expensive! ! ! is there any cheap way to do this!

    thank you –

  22. The title is correct… This analysis is purely from my paternal line, following the Y-chromosome. To follow the mothers, I would have to use the small bundle of mitochondrial DNA, and I have not done this yet.

  23. This is an invitation to The Genographic Project on Flickr!

    Please add your picture to the group!

  24. I just heard on the news about the genetic mapping of Québécois CARTaGENE, a genetic map of Québec so, although not exactly the same, I thought of your posting here. They are going to chose subjects randomly from a pool. I would love to be part of this since my ancestors were among the very first pioneers. Everyone ought to be interested in knowing their genetic tree or contributing to its mapping.

  25. Hi Steve! ~ Finally, your DNA page has resurfaced. Last time, I had no chance to focus on it. I have a deep interest in human genetics and bloodlines. [Fun to link a Web DNA profile to Genographic Project reports to learn if genetic-based web-links unite flickr pals! LOL!] Please also see Stephen Oppenheimer’s fascinating DNA works – http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/stephenoppenheimer/reading.html , from Bradshaw Foundation – http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/stephenoppenheimer/stephen-opp... ! For those of British-Irish, etc. lineage see Oppenheimer’s – http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=7817 – and for Egypt’s cultural antecedent, he traces back 24,000 years to a now sunken continental SE Asia, also delivering insight into Polynesian origins – http://www.ajhg.org/AJHG/fulltext/S0002-9297(07)00016-X – via his stimulating archaeo-lingua-genetic research melange!!] Meanwhile, in England too, here’s an interesting, and readable, informal insight into the maternal ‘7 Daughters of Eve’ program of Bryan Sykes research group, in an analysis of some modern British citizens – http://www.ulla-art.com/assets/EastAnglianDailyTimes-June-30th-2...

    Imagine if we could in addition map our known past-lifes [via located skeletal genetic analysis] in combination with our present-day lives, for a wholistic view of personal soul paths!!! ~ Thus we reach a Quantum leap of time-life consciousness, plus gain simultaneous multi-life consciousness perceptions. ~ Exponential telepathic co-synchronicity would flood in among non-met past-blood-linked souls. Bonds way beyond the superficial become natural, inevitable.
    While the closest to this idea on the web seems to be Melanie Tonia Evans, ‘Your DNA Programming & Its Recognised Effect on Life’ – http://www.melanietoniaevans.com.au/teachings-dna-programming.htm , she is really only saying ‘we are all one’, and that we create our own reality. But she does not explain our venture into multiple lives, or why we incarnate, or how we may benefit to re-discover our incarnatory continuum or metaphysical spirit lineage. So the cutting edge for this mass lifetime has to be to understand the sphere we gravitate to, our purpose, nor the mechanisms which facilitate how and when we fit into projects on a global level, and how we can advance from national to global group consciousness. We need research grants, and a base to get into the dialogues, the discussions, and to achieve the eco-city model goals.

    If you’d like to warp-shift your US-centric nomadic scouting, we could even co-strategise some global collective long-term big-picture projects! 😉 Like maybe soon ? LOL!

    From the bounty of the new ‘Earthdream’ ~ Earthcare, 2 Invites to enjoy! LOL! 🙂

    Please add this beautiful photo to CITRIT, Best of yours! Citrit group



    HERE’S TO A SUSTAINABLE & GREEN **2008 ~ "YEAR OF PLANET EARTH"**
    In the great global journey to Sustainable living this is a sensational icon for
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  26. So we all originally just evolved from one man …. and developed into vastly distinctive races ? With different mind sets , different morals and different cultures ? Oh , I guess that’s from the environment .
    Yeah , right . Sell this snake oil elsewhere , Dr. O . And take the sheeple with you on the way out .

  27. I wonder if jethro44 registered with Flickr just to post this comment.

  28. @jethro44: i think you have a question in there, and the answer is, well, yes.

    given the paths that our species has taken since the last few major population bottlenecks, it is actually surprising that natural selection has only lead to the amount of variation that we ‘see’ today – mathematically, there actually should be even more variation, and there probably is much more. genomics is helping understand this (even greater) variation and put into the proper evolutionary context.

  29. Hi Jurvetson. Thank you for an interesting post.

    Saami and Samoyeds are not the same people or the same cultures, as told in this text from the Genographic Atlas.

    The earliest origins of the Saami people in the Nordic areas and western Russia are western European, male haplogroup I1a and female mtDNA U5 and V.

    You can see photos of the Saami people in my blog

    http://www.saamiblog.blogspot.com/

    Your haplogroup is most prevalent in present Finland, it is not specifically connected to the Saami. In general males in Finland have extreme frequencies of y-DNA haplogroup N (LLY22). Some areas in eastern Finland have over 80% of males with haplogroup N. These are not Saami males. To the Saami people y-DNA N very likely came with people from Russia to Finland, from where this haplogroup spread to the Saami. Some old studies of Cuman or Qunok people who settled in old Hungary abt. 1100 -1200 AD found 2 of 4 males with N. Other men with N very likely came directly from Siberia to Finland and then to the Saami. We call these males Kven or Kvens (plural) in Norway and Sweden. Most Kvens were farmers and still today they have their own culture and language that is dissimilar from the Saami. The Kven people very likely migrated in to these areas from abt. 1500-1600. K. Pitkänen (1994) have studied the colonization of Finland by agriculturists and found that the major settlements of Northern Finland happened after the 16th century.

    The present Saami people have high frequencies of N in Finland and Sweden. In Norway where the Kven migrations were restricted the frequencies of N are very low in comparison. However many men with haplogroup N in Norway can genealogically be traced back to Northern Finland. My fathers line is N, and his family migrated from northern Finland to Northern Norway in the beginning of 1800eds. Most Kvens came to Norway at that time, however some migrations came much earlier. They came with Russian names, because of the Norwegian policy at that time their names were changed to Norwegian ones. They spoke a language similar to Finnish and they brought with them Russian and Finnish traditions.

    There is a scientific article that might interest you by Mirja Raitio (2001):

    http://www.genome.org/cgi/content/full/11/3/471

    In my blog you will find Internet links to more articles about your haplogroup and in a while I will write more about its migrations and history. Best regards from Saamiblog

  30. most interesting
    i’ve always been wondering about things like this and i have tried to find out where my ancestors are from
    i know something but not this far at all…
    amazing

    Ps: welcome to civilisation jethro
    get some rest man!
    there’s a lot you need to learn before you’ll be able to function normally around here.
    god won’t help you you know 🙂

  31. quite neat indeed. Got my results today. Same Haplo N but with twist around current China. Weird results in a way. We now that our forfathers have been here in Finland since 1155. At least they made a deal of property with one Bishop who was in Finland then. I’ll make an similar page on my pages also with this info when I got the time to do that.

  32. Very interesting, yeah. Thanks!

  33. Excellent story! I got tested through the Genographic Project as well — Haplogroup R1B. hope you don’t mind, but I’m linking to this post from my own test results, as an alternate example of ancient human migration.

  34. africa is a daddy

    lolol 😀

  35. this is fascinating, not that I can follow all of it….
    will have to look into it???
    I have followed your Estonian photos… I am 1/2 Lithuanian ( grandparents on one side immigrated here, independently), but though I have distant family there, I see no chance of connection or a visit. Well, maybe a visit, one day.

  36. Interesting – what’s your mtDNA?

    My yDNA i1 (Anglo Saxon) and my mtDNA is T2 (Northern Italy / Middle East / Eastern Europe royalty and the American outlaw Jesse James).

    I wonder if there are any attributes we inherit only from our father or mother and never from the other side. If there are, they should be associated with yDNA or mtDNA lines. Otherwise we are just a mix of everyone we descended from.

  37. ‘korea map is assume blade picture"sword"’

  38. Extremely interesting! Thanks for sharing this!!

  39. [http://www.flickr.com/photos/sportsaction/] – I just got the mtDNA analysis. I’m Maternal Haplogroup H11a, which is common to Nicolaus Copernicus and Marie Antoinette. =)

    23andMe: "H originated in the Near East and then expanded after the peak of the Ice Age into Europe, where it is the most prevalent haplogroup today. It is present in about half of the Scandinavian population…

    H originated about 40,000 years ago in the Near East, where favorable climate conditions allowed it to flourish. About 10,000 years later it spread westward all the way to the Atlantic coast and east into central Asia as far as the Altay Mountains.

    About 21,000 years ago an intensification of Ice Age conditions blanketed much of Eurasia with mile-thick glaciers and squeezed people into a handful of ice-free refuges in Iberia, Italy, the Balkans and the Caucasus. Several branches of haplogroup H arose during that time, and after the glaciers began receding about 15,000 years ago most of them played a prominent role in the repopulation of the continent.

    Haplogroup H achieved an even wider distribution later on with the spread of agriculture and the rise of organized military campaigns.

    Recent research indicates Haplogroup H made its way into the deserts of northern Africa via the Strait of Gibraltar."

    and here are the rest of my chromosomes
    My Chromosomes

  40. Now you have the full story! Most interesting.

    I read most on the 23and Me website. I wish I could get the analysis done too, both of them.

    I found this on Ancestry.com (I am a non-paying member at Ancestry.ca) dna.ancestry.com/welcome.aspx

    It looks like DNA testing to learn about ones’ family origins is now quite popular. Of course, 23andMe offers something a little different.

  41. Steve, are those all the details you get when you buy their standard service (the one for $99 plus 1 yr subscription)? Or is yours some kind of in-depth extended™ special® thing? 🙂
    I don’t really have the money to spare, but I’m thinking very hard about it; my curiosity is almost killing me. Do they do business with ol’Europe? (Sorry for abusing you as their customer help desk… I should go and find out myself, lazy me.)

  42. I’m curious to know how they sampled the mtDNA of Copernicus and Marie Antoinette.
    Via descendants perhaps? Or relics?

  43. I was wondering that too. For the guys, they do not pass mtDNA down, so it would require an exhumation or a descendent via a sister (if he has one). For Copernicus, the mtDNA was actually used to help identify his corpse in a tomb with hundreds.

    "Even though DNA begins degrading immediately following death, the genetic material is often preserved in the teeth for hundreds or thousands of years. Scientists studying ancient DNA (aDNA) usually focus on the type of DNA that has the greatest chance of surviving: mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), which is passed exclusively from mother to children. The sheer abundance of mtDNA makes it much more likely to survive; each cell contains hundreds of copies." (Copernicus summary in The Spittoon)

    schoschle – I have standard service. I think it was $199 when I signed up.

  44. Steve, I visited all the photos in The Genographic Project Flickr group yesterday. I discovered that the man who started the Flickr group is a francophone from Québec. I expect that the men in our families have the same origins (Y-Chromosone speaking!). I found a long description that probably fits my group and copied it. I will have to do with that until I can afford a DNA test.

  45. And there’s gene transfer via the human gut !

    Since adopting GM crops in 1999, South Africa’s pesticide expenditures have increased 59 per cent. The way pesticides are applied to GM crops has created resistant weeds in the Americas, returning more toxic herbicide cocktails and tilling, to control them. US chemical insecticide use has decreased since GM, but it also decreased in similar proportions in GM-free countries, to 24 per cent of 1995 levels in France, 90 per cent in Germany, and 84 per cent in Switzerland.

  46. [http://www.flickr.com/photos/celtico] —You offer a fascinating peek into the anti-GMO debate, with what sounds like scientific and data driven arguments. But, have you thought about your claims? Let’s just focus on the first one: Since adopting GM crops in 1999, South Africa’s pesticide expenditures have increased 59 per cent.

    Since it’s your opening sentence, I presume you see it as an argument of causaility? And that 59% is a bad number? How does it compare to non-GMO crops over the same time period? How does it compare to inflation and GDP growth?

    So, over 13 years, expenditures went up 59%. That’s a 3.6% annual growth rate. South African inflation exceed that, so unless that’s adjusted for real currency, pesticide use would have declined over that period of 59% expenditure growth.

    Let’s assume that they are inflation-adjusted real growth rates. What if total crop production increased by more than 59% over that same period? Then again, the conclusion could easily be that the GMO shift lowered pesticide use. I am no expert on South African agriculture, but a quick search on Google reveals that from 2005-2007 alone, South African field crop revenue increased 88% (from South Africa Online). While it’s not the number I was looking for, it suggests that in two years, South African farmers made 88% more on their crops, and spent 7% more on pesticides.

    Again, I ask if you have read environmentalist Stewart Brand’s latest book:

    "The environmental movement has done more harm with its opposition to genetic engineering than with any other thing we have been wrong about. We’ve starved people, hindered science, hurt the natural environment, and denied our own practitioners a crucial tool."

  47. I see you are convinced by your own (financial) argument never the less the lack of scientific knowledge is the issue especially as there’s no insurance and risk is socialized .A large promise of reduced pesticides is not working , you can work out the rest of the story , of the need for precaution, etc ?Its a shame there has been so little informed debate in USA and vested, commercial or ‘patent’ interests hold sway with secret so called ‘trade’ or patent deals like TPP, TIPP or CETA

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